Six cracking races on Channel Four this afternoon from Newbury and Newcastle with the Hennessey and the Fighting Fifth the highlights. Find out why we are taking on Denman and Binocular and what the value bets are in our armchair race by race guide.
1.35 Newbury – It’s impossible to oppose World Hurdle winner Big Bucks who has tons in hand on his rivals on official ratings and barring accidents should win with the minimum of fuss. He has bags of talent but is a tricky ride and needs to be produced late, as he was when beating Punchestowns at Cheltenham. He followed that up by comfortably giving weight away to Mighty Man at Aintree and that form is head and shoulders above anything his rivals have achieved. Paul Nicholls has admitted that he will improve for the run, but an 80 per cent Big Bucks would be good enough to land the spoils. I would expect the 2-5 with Paddypower to be smashed up by the big hitters this morning, and he looks like to go off 1-3 at best. Nicky Henderson’s Duc De Regniere looks the obvious one for the forecast, but Lough Derg is sure to come on for two pipe-openers and may outbattle him for the runner-up role.
1.50 Newcastle – The best renewal of the WBX Fighting Fifth Hurdle ever with the two current market leaders for the Champion Hurdle, Binocluar and Solwhit, going head to head in a mouthwatering clash. Preference is for the latter who has done nothing but improve and destroyed Muirhead and the much hyped Hurricane Fly at Punchestown last time out. Charles Byrne’s five year-old travelled powerfully throughout that day and quickened up impressively under Davy Russell to win as he liked. He took the scalp of Punjabi in last season’s Irish Champion Hurdle, and that horse outbattled Binocular to land the Champion itself. There is every reason to believe that there is plenty more to come from Solwhit, and at 2-1 he is a definite play against the even money jolly who has not run for 263 days.
2.05 Newbury – Howard Johnson has his horses in terrific form and Akilak looks terrific value at 12-1. The eight-year-old is running off a mark only 2lb higher than when a cracking second at Cheltenham to The Sawyer and all his best runs have been when coming off a long layoff. He comes into this after a 213 day break, and the stats reveal that he has won two and come second twice when returning from an absence of over 200 days. Favourite for the race is Paul Nicholls’ Pasco who has won three out of four at this track. However he is yet to prove conclusively that he stays the 2m 4f trip and his confidence could well have been affected after he fell last time out at Kempton when still holding every chance. At 4-1 he’s terrible value. A bigger threat could be David Pipe’s Piraya, who failed to live up to expectations last season but is now nicely weighted as a result. At 16-1 he looks overpriced and is worth a small each-way saver.
2.40 Newbury – Jeremy Scott’s Gone To Lunch was put up as the selection earlier in the week at 18-1 and I see no reason to desert him at the final hour. The nine-year-old was one of the best staying novice chasers last season, and looks nicely weighted on just 10st 3lb after being given a recent pipe-opener at Ascot. He proved that stamina was his forte when narrowly failing to get up and beat Hello Bud in the Scottish National, and was again staying on strongly when an excellent second to Rare Bob at the Punchestown Festival where he had Sun Alliance winner Cooldine just over 16 lengths behind him in fourth. He looks the ideal type for this race, and at the prices on offer has to be the each-way bet against the “big two” of Denman and Barbers Shop. I am still not convinced that Denman is the same horse that won the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008, and believe that he may still be suffering mental scars from that gruelling contest run at a break neck gallop. He was impressive when winning this prize two years ago, but now races off a 13lb higher mark, and at around 4-1 I will be laying him until the cows come home. Barbers Shop has a terrific chance on the book, but he has not looked like an out and out stayer to me, and I think he could struggle to get home when push comes to shove.
3.15 Newbury – Nicky Henderson is on fire at the moment and Fairyland looks poised to run a big race after creditable thirds in competitive handicaps at Cheltenham and Kemton. He looked the likely winner of the latter contest over 2m 5f before his stamina gave way, and the back drop in trip to two miles will be right up his street. A strong pace looks assured, and that should enable Barry Geraghty to use the Fairyland’s high cruising speed to get into a good challenging position entering the straight and produce him late to land the spoils. At 8-1 he looks an each-way steal. The main dangers look to be Michael Flips and Dani’s Girl. The latter is improving at a rate of knots and scored readily at Ascot where he had the former back in third. There should be little between the two today on revised terms.
3.25 Newcastle – Irish raider Selection Box has already attracted plenty of support at fancy odds this morning, and is far better than his uninspiring B5B form figures suggest. He was unlucky when brought down at the first in the Troytown, and before that had run a blinder when finishing fifth to subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Tranquil Sea in a very hot race at Naas. Although beaten nearly 17 lengths that day he was attempting the impossible by trying to give the winner 7lb and the quality of the race is further highlighted by the fact that two os last season’s very best novices - Joncol and Trafford Lad - finished second and third respectively behind the impressive winner. On that run alone, Selection Box looks attractively handicapped off just 10st 6lb and the 20-1 still on offer in places should be snapped up.
Recommended bets: 3pts each-way Akilak (12-1 generally available); 10pts win Solwhit (2-1 Ladbrokes); 3pts each-way Fairyland (8-1Betfred, Sky Bet, Totesport); 2pts each-way Selection Box (20-1 Betfred, Totesport)
Already advised: 5pts each-way Gone To Lunch 18-1
