We've already suggested backing Bayern Munich to progress past Manchester United and Saturday's action hasn't changed our opinion.
While Bayern won with ten men at title rivals Schalke, United were beaten at home by Chelsea to hand the initiative to the Londoners.
There's no doubt United will miss Wayne Rooney again unless rumours of a shock inclusion tonight turn out to be true.
The latest gossip is that the England striker could even start despite only being on crutches last week!
If Sir Alex Ferguson opts for one up front again, as he usually does in big games, then it's hard to see where the goals are going to come from.
Dimitar Berbatov just doesn't get in the box often enough and was isolated against Chelsea.
Nani must surely start as his puzzling absence left the Red Devils with a lop-sided line-up at the weekend but it's well known he's better on the right and Antonio Valencia needs to play as well.
Of course, a 1-0 win to United sees them through but it's hard, if not impossible, to imagine Bayern not scoring with Arjen Robben set to return.
Bayern have scored in every away game in the Champions League this term and it's a key part of their tactics to be offensive on their travels - something that worked wonders in Fiorentina when they lost 3-2 but still progressed.
A goal for the visitors makes life very hard for United. They will need three to get through and, if the game goes to extra time, it gives the Germans another half hour to score another decisive away goal.
The atmosphere can help Ferguson's side overcome this latest hurdle but Old Trafford will only be rocking if the team play at a high tempo from the start. If Berbatov is alone up front, that's unlikely to be the case.
Whether Ferguson will be bold and stick Federico Macheda in attack as well, or borderline crazy and risk Rooney from the start, is up for debate.
The reality is the hosts need to keep things tight at the back while somehow showing enough daring endeavour in their play to test Bayern's suspect defence.
If United are to win, it'll either be a cagey affair which United can squeeze through 1-0 on a nerve-shredding evening where the tension will be intense until the final whistle (like against Barcelona in the semi-final two years ago) or a bold attacking display that reaps dividends (like against Manchester City in the Carling Cup this year).
But there are so many variables where the tie just has to favour Bayern that it's not difficult to imagine the Champions League semi-finals without any English representatives.
United are 4/5 to win (remember they can do this and still go out) with Bayern at 4/1 to triumph on the night.
To qualify it's now a best-priced 10/11 Bayern and 18/19 United. That's just how close it really is.
