The Carling Cup is strange in that the top teams put their weak sides out in the early stages but tend to dominate the final. Manchester United and Chelsea have farmed the Wembley and Cardiff turf in recent years with the only break to a sequence dating back to 2005 coming when Spurs beat Chelsea in 2008. At 5/1 the field the stats say you must back Chelsea and United and take the margin on 28th February 2010. Whist this potential 2/1 shot (on a level stake) is attractive we think we may have unearthed a bit more value further down the line.
Aston Villa remain trophy virgins under the O'Neill regime but last year they played exceptionally well until March. At one stage they were favourites to break into the big four but the team bus broke down and Villa blew up. This year they have again started well and after four straight victories sit in fifth place in the table. We realise that the run has been put together mainly against teams that are on the urine side of poor but it does give the team confidence and we think that at 16/1 they represent decent each way value, particularly as the final is in February.
O'Neill has fond memories of the trophy he won with Leicester and has generally fielded a strong side. Villa won the trophy back in '96 when they destroyed Leeds United. So a good run in the competition would not be a major surprise. This week they face up against Cardiff at Villa Park, and given the recent form of the Welsh side it is a game they should win. At the same time there are five all Premier League clashes so a home tie in round four could see Villa trading at about the 8/1 mark. So we can adopt some punt in play hedging tactics.
