Indianapolis Colts v New York Jets - Sky Sports 3 20:00 Sunday 24th January
In the AFC Championship, the Superbowl favourites, the Indianapolis Colts, take on the New York Jets, who have rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez at the helm. Although Sanchez is having a creditable postseason, becoming only the fourth rookie quarterback to lead his team to a Conference Championship, the statistics are against him.As none of the previous three have lead their team to the Superbowl. But I am willing to overlook this, because the Jets are a rush first offence and have arguably the best defence in the NFL. The Jets are ranked 1st in the NFL for total rush yards per game (172yds) and their big offensive line should be able to dominate an undersized Indianapolis defence, with good days predicted for both NY running backs (Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones). This should relieve pressure off Sanchez and allow him to settle into the game. On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis’ rushing offence is struggling.Against the Ravens, the Colts rushed for only 42yds from 25 attempts and were ranked 32nd in the NFL regular season for rushing yards per game. The Colts need to improve this statistic against the Jets otherwise they could be in for a long day. With their substandard rush offence the Colts are going to look for Peyton Manning to win the game through the air, although Manning is used to this he is coming up against the hottest defence in the NFL, with the Jets only conceding 43 points in their last four games. Manning is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL but he may meet his match against the Jets Probowl cornerback Darrelle Revis.Revis has had an exceptional season in which he has had eight interceptions (two in the playoffs) and has kept the best wide receivers in the NFL in his back pocket. With this in mind Manning won’t be throwing the ball anywhere near Revis who will most likely be covering Manning’s favourite target Reggie Wayne. This brings me onto my first bet; with Wayne out of the picture Manning’s new go to receiver could be Austin Collie.The rookie from BYU has had a stellar season for the Colts, leading NFL rookies with 64 receptions and 8TD’s, including the first TD against the Ravens last week. With these factors taken into account the 7/1 on offer for him to score the first touchdown for Indianapolis seems like a good bet. The Jets match up very well against the Colts, as I have previously stated they have a powerful rush offence that should overpower the Colts offensive lineman. They also have an excellent secondary that should restrict Manning.So the 31/10 available for them to win the match looks very appealing. And with the other two teams left in the play-offs (New Orleans and Minnesota) both having gunslingers at quarterback, I can think of worst bets than the 8/1 available for them to win the Superbowl.
New Orleans Saints v Minnesota Vikings – Sky Sports 1 23:30 Sunday 24th January
We can expect a shootout in the NFC Championship game as it features the league’s top two regular-season scoring offences. Last week the Saints demolished the Cardinals 45-14 with both Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas having standout games, rushing for a combined 136yds and one touchdown. This week they are likely to struggle against a much larger and better defensive line, which could put a lot of pressure on quarterback Drew Brees. With the Saints having to pass the ball more than they want to, the Vikings can defend the pass more and take away the deep threat, which is the Saints most potent offensive weapon. This could also cause Brees to throw an interception or two. The Vikings led by veteran Brett Favre come to the Superdome on a bit of a roll having completely outplayed the Giants and the Cowboys in their last two games. The Vikings rushing offence is also a force to be reckoned and they are coming up against a pretty weak Saints rush defence, so they are expected to have a good day, especially Adrian Peterson.Favre has been used as a supporting act to Peterson during the regular season, which has benefited him, as he hasn’t turned the ball over as much as he had in previous seasons. It may also help him finish out the season stronger than he has been doing. If the Vikings can control the ball for long periods of time and take away the Saints deep ball threat I can only see one team winning this game.
Selections:
Austin Collie First Indianapolis Touchdown Scorer 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
New York Jets to beat Indianapolis Colts 31/10 (Paddy Power)
Minnesota to beat New Orleans 17/10 (Betfred, Boylesports)
