Channel 4 cameras are at Newmarket this afternoon where there will be plenty of clues for next year’s 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas on show. We take a look at the four televised races in a bid to sort out the value on offer in the early markets.
1.25 - A trappy contest where the market is headed by the once raced Tabassum. Sir Michael Stoute’s colt looked potentially useful when winning his maiden at the track, but the time was slow and this represents a big step up in class. At 2-1 he is no value and it could pay to take a chance with Sweet Sonnet.
The Godolphin filly won her maiden in good style at York, and was then thought good enough to contest the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot where she finished a respectable 8th of 22 to Habaayib. She was given a break before running Shamandar close in a Listed contest at Salisbury on ground which would probably have been too soft for her.
The seven furlongs and faster ground today are ideal, and at 9-2 with Totesport she is worth a punt against the jolly.
1.55 - Sir Michael Stoute once again provides the favourite in Confront, who is a top priced 6-4 this morning to complete a hat-trick. The son of Nayef has done nothing but improved throughout the season, but could find himself a sitting duck in his bid to make all today and makes little appeal at the odds available.
The value could be Rio De La Plata, who finished well behind Confront last time out at Haydock but was sent off the 11-4 favourite and was clearly unsuited by the soft going. He travelled strongly before fading badly that day and was eased down once his chance had gone. He is sure to have come on a bundle for the run, and on his Group 1 placings last season is the one they would all have to beat.
The quicker going at headquarters is what he has been crying out for, and he is overpriced at 4-1 if back to anything near his best.
2.30 - A fantastic race two of the market leaders for next year’s 1,000 Guineas, Lady of the Desert and Special Dut, going head to head. Both have looked impressive in what they have achieved so far and there is very little between them on the book.
However having already advised French challenger Special Duty as a standout bet at 11-4 earlier in the week (see - A Special bet at 11-4) I see no reason to desert her at this late hour. She won the Prix Robert Papin in decisive style before putting up a cracking performance against the colts in the Prix Mornay where she led everywhere but on the line and was narrowly beaten by Arcano in a course record time.
With Arcano as short as 12-1 for next year’s 2,000 Guineas,that run was exceptional, and she can provide her astute trainer with her fourth winner of the race.
3.05 - Awzaan was put up at the final declaration stage at 100-30 ( see - Awesome Awzaan the Middle Park value) and I am surprised to see him on offer this morning at the slightly bigger odds of 7-2.
Mark Johnston’s colt is unbeaten in three starts, and took the step up in class in his stride when running away with the Mill Reef at Newbury. He travelled supremely well throughout that contest and showed a lovely turn of foot to put the race to bed and win easing down.
He faces a tough task on the book against favourite Showcasing and the Godophin trained Poet’s Voice, but is clearly going the right way and will be suited by the uphill finish at headquarters and will hopefully be staying on strongly when many of his rivals will be coming to the end of their tether.
If he does win then his odds for next year’s 2,000 Guineas will surely shorten, and it could be worth have a speculative each-way punt on him at 40-1 with Stan James for classic glory considering that he is generally a 16-1 chance with other layers.
Recommended bets: 2pts win Sweet Sonnet - 1.25 Newmarket (9-2 Totesport), 2pts win Rio De La Plata - 1.55 Newmarket (4-1 generally available)
2pts each way Awzaan - 2010 2,000 Guineas (40-1 Stan James)
Already advised: 10pts win Special Duty - 2.30 Newmarket (11-4), 5pts win Awzaan - 3.05 Newmarket (100-30)
