Gilles Muller has previous with Rafa Nadal this summer. At SW19 he played well in a rain delayed match. The first two sets went to tie breaks before the Spaniard pulled clear in the third for a convincing win.
Muller has been serving his way to the last 16 and there is little doubt that this shot will be his main weapon against Nadal, whom he beat at Wimbledon in 2005. Nadal should be too good for the perennial Luxembourg sports personality of the year but will fancy the big serving Gilles to perhaps steal a set in a tie break.
If it is going to happen then the first set has to be the most likely. Muller can be backed in plenty of places on the washing at 5/1 to win the first set. The alternatives would be to back four sets on the total sets market. At puntinplay we favour the former option.