Paul Nicholls sends a strong raiding party to Newbury today, but at punt in play we think two of his runners are too short in the betting and worth taking on.
Pasco – 2.05 Newbury
Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old took well to fences last season, winning twice and running with credit in some hot handicaps. However all his best form has been over 2m and there are huge question marks as to whether his stamina will last out over today’s extra half mile.
To me he also does not look particularly well handicapped on what he has achieved, and it will be interesting to see how his jumping stands up after he crashed out when holding every chance on his reappearance at Kempton.
He has been put in as the 4-1 jolly by the old enemy, but faces no easy task against some promising and proven types and probably owes his position at the head of the betting to the fact that he is trained by the Dictheat maestro. I rated him around a 6-1 chance on my tissue, so at 4s he is far too short and a lay.
Denman – 2.40 Newbury
Brilliant when winning this race two seasons ago and running his rivals ragged to win the 2008 Gold Cup but looked a shadow of his former self last season despite finishing runner-up to Kauto Star in racing’s blue riband.
Crashed out at Aintree when upsides Madison Du Berlais but looking a tired and beaten horse, and it could be that his heroic Gold Cup winning effort where he finished legless after a breakneck end to end gallop has left him mentally scarred.
He has also suffered from heart murmur problems and it remains to be seen if he can recapture the form that earned him superstar status.
With so many questions to answer he has to be opposed at the 4-1 on offer, and his backers will know their fate after the first half dozen fences. If he gets into a rhythm and dominates to the front then we could see the old Denman once again. If he doesn’t then it’s tear up your tickets time.
For me there are far too may ifs and buts about him, and he has to be a lay.
