Interesting match in Italy tonight, with a Cup Final taking place betwwen Genoa of Italy and Valencia from Spain. Both sides can still qualify but they will be acutely aware that Lille will probably win against Slavia Prague meaning that Genoa need a win and Valencia need a point.
The Spanish side do well on their domestic road trips. The have played seven and won six so far in La Liga. Scoring an average of two goals per game. Villa has been the most prolific marksman with 12 League goals to date. They are unbeaten away from home in the Europa but they have drawn two games they should have won. They lead Lille by a goal when the French side scored in the 86th minute and worse followed in Prague when they threw away a two zip lead in the last ten minutes of the game. This isn't a form line but it might be worth monitoring for the puntinplay option.
Genoa need to win or for Prague to beat Lille. The fact that they will have to attack won't be that much difference from the norm. In eight home matches in Serie A they have scored twenty goals. An average of 2.5 per game. They don't have a dedicated marksman like Villa but Crespo has bagged his fair share of goals already.
The washing line can't split them. Valencia are a top priced 2.63 with Stan James. Genoa a stand out 2.9 with Betfair. We favour Valencia but te safer bet is the over/under 2.5 goals.
Given the stats and the nature of the encounter we think there will be over 2.5 goals in this one. Skybet have priced it as an each of two market. The 1.83 (5/6 more than) is very fair.
The other market of interest is the half time/full time play. Valencia have won six on the road in La Liga. In four of those matches they were drawing at half time, before grabbing the three points.On this basis the 6.7 with Betfair and the 6.5 in a couple of other places looks value.
