Robin”boy wonder” Soderling is a short priced favourite to win the SkiStar Swedish Open. A the time of pressing send he was about an Even money chance to defend the title he won in 2009. Based on what he has achieved at Wimbledon on grass and Roland Garros on the red stuff his position in the market is justified.
He does have a tough route to the final and he is scheduled to play David Ferrer in the last four. Ferrer is a red stuff specialist and took Soderling to the wire at SW19 before losing 7-5 in the final set. Prior to Nadal in the quarters he was the only other player to take sets off the Swede.
The benefit of having a short priced favourite at the top half is that you can usually squeeze some value out of the bottom sixteen. Verdasco is seeded to meet Soderling in the final but the Spaniard maybe feeling the effect of a long season and for this event, despite his spring form on clay, he is passed over. Almagro would meet Verdasco if the seeding worked out, in the semi-final. Almagro beat Verdasco on clay at the French Open in the last eight and then took Nadal to two tie breaks in the semi. In fact his performance compares very well with what Soderling achieved in the final against the same player.
The other player in the bottom half who we like, and is improving, is Denis Istomin. He recent form has been on grass but he pushed Berdych all the way at Wimbledon, losing 6-4 in the final set. Prior to Wimbledon he made the semi-final at Eastbourne and the quarters at Queens, where he took a set off Nadal. At Roland Garros he lost a second round five set match to Hewitt but in his previous event at Bordeaux, on clay, he made the semi-final. In short he is having the best spell of his season and whilst not a confirmed clay court specialist he will face two qualifiers before a likely quarter final with Almagro.
Istomin is the value punt at about the 33/1 mark but Almagro should be included in calculations as strong back up at around the 5/1 mark.
