If you took the puntinplay advice and backed Tomas Berdych to win his quarter at 7/2 (4.5) you are in a nice in play position. He is a 9/4 (3.25) best price to beat Fedex in the quarter final tonight, so there is a trading gap to exploit.
If you haven't played Berdych then he is far to big a price against the former World number one. Federer holds an 8-3 head to head advantage against the Czech and after Berdych had one their first encounter in 2004 Federer won the next eight upto and including the Australian Open in 2009. However it has been a different story in 2010 where those who doubted Tomas have seen him twice order from the winners menu in two head to heads. Berdych was good value for his three sets to one victory over Fedex at Wimbledon and this added to his surprise victory in Miami in March.
Both players look to be on form this week but at the respective prices we have to go for Berdych to make the last four.
We also think that the 20/1 offered on the Czech in the outright market (sportingbet) is on the very generous side. A victory over Federer will see that price more than half and he wolud only have to repeat his Wimbledon victory over Djokovic to land the place element of the bet. Most firms are 14/1.
