We haven't played Nikolay Davydenko that well this week. We got a couple of handicaps right and we did think he was to big at 25 and wrote accordingly. However last night we thought he would lose his match with Soderling and be back in Volgograd for a couple of vodka's this evening.
Instead he is playing the World number one in the last four of the ATP tour finals. Federer has a fantastic record against the five foot ten right hander and leads twelve zip. As you know we don't take these stats on face value we like to dig. However on this occasion any analysis just points further to the Swiss legend.
In the twelve meeting on a variety of "going conditions" Fedex has lost just three sets. He is odds on to win 2-0 today. Howevr the one stat going for Volgograd man is the fact that he hasn't played Federer in 2009. The other positive notes are the form he has displayed since returning from injury and the fact that this has meant he comes into the series as a relatively fresh player.
Davydenko won in Shanghai in Ocotober and Kuala Lumpar in September. In Shanghai he beat a quality field and if on his game today he can push Federer harder than the washing line anticipates. Federer has not started most his games this week and this could give an early advantage to Davydenko who we think can cover the handicap at evens +3.5 games. Betfair are odds on.
