Everyone seems to have the highlight of the meeting as a straight match between Kauto Star and Denman, but I fancy Cooldine to cause and upset and beat them both.
Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old looked a potential star when running away with last year’s RSA, and after suffering injury looked to be on his way back when a cracking runner-up to Joncol in the Irish Hennessy.
He showed a lot more of his old zest that day, and if he hadn’t had made a bad mistake six from home I think he would have won.
Many will argue that he has a monumental amount to find on the book to beat the “big two”, but does he really?
On a line through What A Friend it can be argued that there is very little between Denman and Cooldine, yet the selection can be backed at double the odds of “The Tank”.
Cooldine beat What A Friend by 30 lengths in last year's RSA on level weights, whilst Denman beat him by 3 1/2 lengths in the Hennessy giving him 24lb. Cooldine was very ill at the start of the season but is now coming back to his best and comes into the race a very fresh horse.
I cannot see him finishing in front of Cooldine, and rate Denman the lay off the week and can even see him finishing out of the frame.
My reasoning for this is I am not convinced about the Denman’s Hennessy form in relation to the Aon where he crashed out three from home. The performance that day set alarm bells ringing in my head regarding Denman's well being.
Why? Because in the Hennessy Denman gave Niche Market 29lb (taking into account riders 3lb claim) and beat him by 7 lengths, yet in the Aon they met on level weights and Niche Market was too close for comfort turning for home and, in my eyes, going better than Denman before he parted company with McCoy.
To me Denman was in the process of running a race nearly three stone below his Hennessy performance, and that is a huge below par effort given the close proximity of the Festival.I think he is now seen at his best when running fresh after a long lay-off and believe the Gold Cup will come too soon after Newbury.
Kauto Star is obviously a worthy favourite and the one that Cooldine has to beat. But reports coming out of Willie Mullins’ yard suggest that Cooldine is now better than ever, and at the odds on offer he has to be cracking each-way value against the odds-on jolly.
Recommended bet: 5pts each-way Cooldine (9-1 totesport, Ladbrokes, Coral)
