The ground has come right for State of Play, and he looks cracking value at 18-1 to land tomorrow's Grand National at Aintree (4.15).
Evan Williams' 10-year-old ran a blinder last year to finish fourth to Mon Mome, and there is every reason to believe that he can turn that form around with Venetia Williams' charge.
He was travelling as well as anything when getting badly hampered and losing his place at Becher's second time round, and it was to his credit that he somehow managed to rally strongly and get back into the race.
Not surprisingly that effort took its toll on the long run-in but he managed to keep on to be beaten just 18 lengths by the winner, who he now meets on much better terms.
Last year, State of Play was giving Mon Mome 2lb, but this time round he is receiving weight and 12lb better off.
It can be argued that Mon Mome has improved since, as his staying on third in the Gold Cup would suggest.
But my counter argument to that would be that State Of Play lost the equivalent of what he was beaten when getting hampered at Becher's in last year's race, and on that basis Mon Mome would have to have improved by nearly two stone to confirm the placings.
To me that is impossible, and the fact that Evan Williams has trained State of Play specifically for this race is another huge plus factor.
He has not endured any hard prep races like his rivals and comes into the race a fresh horse ready to run the race of his life.
He is renowned for running his best races when fresh, as when winning the Hennessy in 2006 with 11st 4lb on his back, and with just 10st 11lb on his back he will feel as if he is running loose.
In my opinion he the best handicapped horses in the race, and granted luck in running is the one they all have to beat.
His main danger could be Gordon Elliott's Backstage, (25-1 Stan James) who will also relish the drying ground and has always looked an ideal National type.
The eight-year-old looked good when winning the Perth Gold Cup last May and scoring at Ffos Las in August. He was given a spin over hurdles at Navan to put him spot on for this, and he certainly has the stamina to play a major part in proceedings.
Two outsiders that I like are Eric’s Charm (50-1 generally available) and Ollie Magern, (200-1 Sportingbet) who could both run far better than their odds suggest.
The former is bold front running type who could do well if taking to the unique National fences, and although all his best form has come on right handed circuits he was impressive when scoring at Newbury last time out.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Olllie Magern is very well handicapped on his old form and ran better than his finishing position suggest when coming seventh to Chief Dan George in the William Hill Trophy. The National fences could spring him back into life and he is no 200-1 shot.
Grand National selections:
1, State Of Play
2, Backstage
3, Eric’s Charm
4, Ollie Magern
Recommended bet: 5pts each-way State Of Play (18-1 Coral)
